Mortgage Rates Stay In A Range, Timing Matters

Theme

Rates are not expected to fall off a cliff in 2026, they are expected to move around in a band. That means the advantage goes to buyers and sellers who plan well, not the ones waiting for a perfect headline.

The quick takeaway

If rates trade in a range, the win is not predicting the bottom. The win is being ready when the right house, and the right negotiation window, shows up.

What I am hearing

Mortgage rates are expected to bounce between about 5.9% and 6.9% in 2026, with the year average around 6.4%. That is a rate range market, not a rate rescue.

Why it matters

When rates do this, buyers stop waiting for a magic number and start shopping payments and monthly ownership costs. Sellers stop getting a free pass from urgency, and start winning by being the easiest yes.

Buyer’s

• Get fully pre approved early, not just pre qualified
• Use rate buydowns, credits, and structure to control your payment when the deal is there
• If a listing is stale, that is where you press on price and terms, not on the homes everyone wants

Seller’s

• Expect more negotiation, buyers will ask for credits, repairs, or buydown help when the payment feels tight
• Winter readiness matters even more in Tahoe, access, roof history, heat, snow storage, defensible space
• Price it like you want it to move, not like you are testing the market

Tahoe translation

In Truckee and around the lake, rate sensitive buyers still buy when the home feels right, but they are pickier about total ownership cost. The listings that show clean, feel easy in winter, and are priced responsibly are the ones that keep momentum.

Read more

Freddie Mac PMMS, the weekly mortgage rate survey most media and lenders reference