Sales Should Pick Up, Without A Frenzy

Theme

2026 price direction, fewer fireworks, more normalization.

The quick takeaway

Most forecasts are not calling for a big move up or down, they are calling for a flatter year where the gap between a great listing and an average one gets wider.

What I am hearing

National home prices are expected to be basically flat, with a forecast around +0.5% and a wider plausible range from about negative 3.6% to positive 4.6%.

Why it matters

In a flatter price year, you do not get saved by the market. Buyers get more leverage, sellers have to earn the sale with pricing, prep, and a clean story.

Buyer’s

• You can be more patient and more picky, you are not chasing the same way
• If a home has been sitting, you have a real case to negotiate, price, credits, repairs, or a rate buydown conversation
• The best homes can still go fast, the opportunity is in the ones that are overpriced or feel complicated

Seller’s

• Pricing right up front matters more than ever, chasing the market is expensive
• Condition and winter readiness are not optional in Tahoe, driveway, roof story, heat, snow storage, access
• Your goal is to feel like the easiest yes in your neighborhood, that is what gets you paid

Tahoe translation

Flat nationally does not mean flat here. The lake is still a pocket market. Some neighborhoods will hold strong because buyers want location and simplicity. Others will feel softer if there is more inventory and more similar options. The winners will be the homes that feel dialed and priced like they actually want to sell.

Read more

FHFA House Price Index, a clean, reliable way to track national and regional home price trends